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Breaking the US growth impasse

As the weak recovery drags on, a hard reality has become clear: the US growth engine isn’t what it was in decades past. For domestic and international companies alike, this painful realization has been heightened by the slow emergence of Europe from its long recession and the serious speed bumps that emerging economies are now hitting.

Earlier this year, we spent several months investigating catalysts with the potential to revitalize the US economy. Five game changers emerged, with particular promise for adding momentum to the recovery and setting the nation on a higher long-term trajectory.1 These five are increasing shale-energy production, which could provide a competitive edge for the next 10 to 15 years; reversing the US trade deficit in knowledge-intensive goods, such as automobiles and aerospace products; harnessing big-data analytics to make broad areas of the economy more efficient; investing in infrastructure while transforming the selection, operation, and delivery of projects; and, finally, fully developing US human capital through better education and workforce training. We estimate these opportunities could raise US productivity and boost GDP by hundreds of billions of dollars over the next seven years (Exhibit 1). Three of them—energy, trade, and infrastructure—could create more than 1.5 million jobs each by 2020.

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